The Battle Between "Expectations of Policy Easing" and "Weak Demand Reality" SHFE Tin Prices May Fluctuate Around 280,000 Yuan/mt in the Short Term [SMM Tin Midday Review]

Midday Commentary on the Most-Traded SHFE Tin Contract, March 26, 2025 The most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2504) opened lower at 280,000 yuan/mt in the morning session, then rebounded amid expectations of macro policies and the tug-of-war between sellers and buyers, closing at 277,530 yuan/mt at midday, up 1.22% from the previous settlement price. The intraday range was 274,800-281,900 yuan/mt, with open interest slightly decreasing by 1,492 lots to 14,000 lots. The US Fed's "dovish pause" and the US dollar's pressure: The US Fed kept interest rates unchanged at its March meeting, but the dot plot indicated a potential 50 basis points rate cut in 2025, fueling market expectations of liquidity easing. However, the US dollar index remained high, fluctuating around 104.28, exerting pressure on non-ferrous metals. Domestic policy countermeasures strengthened: The central bank signaled RRR and interest rate cuts, proposing "timely RRR and interest rate cuts" on March 18 to reduce social financing costs. The Ministry of Finance increased investment support for the "implementation of major national strategies and the development of security capabilities in key areas" and the "program of large-scale equipment upgrades and consumer goods trade-ins," with new special bonds of 4.4 trillion yuan, boosting expectations for infrastructure demand. Cautious market sentiment: The increase in open interest of the most-traded contract slowed, with intensified tug-of-war between bulls and bears at the 280,000 yuan/mt level. Some shorts stopped losses and exited, but no trend of increasing positions was formed. Support/resistance range: The price stabilized above the 5-day moving average (281,000 yuan/mt), with psychological support at 280,000 yuan/mt and significant resistance at 285,000 yuan/mt. The MACD indicator showed shrinking red bars, suggesting short-term range-bound fluctuations. SHFE tin is currently in a tug-of-war between "expectations of policy easing" and "weak demand reality," and may fluctuate around 280,000 yuan/mt in the short term.